Dan Paluska

Experts and the role of randomness in our lives…
March 27, 2009, 5:54 pm
Filed under: information, randomness | Tags: , , , ,

But do experts actually get it right themselves?

The expert on experts is Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. His 2005 book, “Expert Political Judgment,” is based on two decades of tracking some 82,000 predictions by 284 experts. The experts’ forecasts were tracked both on the subjects of their specialties and on subjects that they knew little about.

The result? The predictions of experts were, on average, only a tiny bit better than random guesses — the equivalent of a chimpanzee throwing darts at a board.

“It made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience,” Mr. Tetlock wrote.

Indeed, the only consistent predictor was fame — and it was an inverse relationship. The more famous experts did worse than unknown ones. That had to do with a fault in the media. Talent bookers for television shows and reporters tended to call up experts who provided strong, coherent points of view, who saw things in blacks and whites. People who shouted — like, yes, Jim Cramer!

via Op-Ed Columnist – Learning How to Think – NYTimes.com.

More here.

and here.

And a great quote from Samuel Goldwyn (MGM). “If I had said ‘yes’ to all the projects I said ‘no’ to, and ‘No’ to all the projects I said ‘yes’ to, it would have probably come out the same.” via The Drunkard’s Walk.


Give Life. Work in the Public Domain.

Emancipate yourself from mental slavery.

We have copyright. We have patents. We have trademarks.

We have GPL, Creative Commons, and many others that keep lawyers in business.

We have Public Domain.

Why not choose Public Domain?

We believe in evolution. Evolution is replication and mutation. Public Domain maximizes potential for replication and mutation. Is this the best way for us to move forward? If you love something can you set it free?

More concrete measures from me on this within the next couple months. Make fun of me if I don’t.

Free Information. Is this where the right meets the left?
March 19, 2009, 12:08 am
Filed under: information, opensource | Tags: , , , , , , , ,

People often react to the story of “free information” or “no intellectual property” as something akin to communism or socialism. It’s true that with no intellectual property we would have a common resource of information. This common resource would benefit society as a whole. It could not be owned by any one person. No intellectual property would most definitely create a wonderful public resource.
But this is not just a plan for the left political wing. This is also what the right wing should want as well. The true conservative philosophy of “free markets” is free information. Currently our intellectual property laws are enforced by the government. No intellectual property means smaller government and a better reflection of the true costs of information holding and dispersal. With the internet, publishing is no longer an issue of note. It’s free and easy.

So can we rally both the right and the left to get rid of patents and copyrights? That is the goal.

No intellectual property. Build a public resource and a better free market.

Have you found Jesus?
March 10, 2009, 2:10 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized

You may just qualify to be on the news! Because that is newsworthy.

I got interviewed by the local paper when I found the holy toaster.

Another thing that animals do.
March 6, 2009, 5:17 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

YouTube – Bizkit the Sleep Walking Dog.

Animals dream. Can you see this guy running?
Life is pretty good for him.

update: interesting note from my bro tom, single sleepwalking episode is immediate dismissal from us military.

Nature says legalize it…
March 4, 2009, 6:45 pm
Filed under: advertising, information
Take a break, take a puff.

Take a break, take a puff.


Marijuana cigarettes were administered in a double-blind fashion and the sequence of Delta9-THC concentration order was balanced across participants. Although marijuana significantly increased the number of premature responses and the time participants required to complete several tasks, it had no effect on accuracy on measures of cognitive flexibility, mental calculation, and reasoning. Additionally, heart rate and several subjective-effect ratings (e.g., “Good Drug Effect,” “High,” “Mellow”) were significantly increased in a Delta9-THC concentration-dependent manner. These data demonstrate that acute marijuana smoking produced minimal effects on complex cognitive task performance in experienced marijuana users.

Keywords: MicroCog; Marijuana; Cannabis; THC; Cognition; Human; Performance

When will our laws match our realities? When will our prisons be empty? Or when will scientists stop trying to feed us lies? Maybe we should lock them all up as well? Or wait, how do we get to volunteer for such a study?

How do we know when the blinders are on?
March 4, 2009, 3:04 am
Filed under: Uncategorized