Filed under: information, randomness | Tags: chaos, experts, information, noise, randomness
But do experts actually get it right themselves?
The expert on experts is Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. His 2005 book, “Expert Political Judgment,” is based on two decades of tracking some 82,000 predictions by 284 experts. The experts’ forecasts were tracked both on the subjects of their specialties and on subjects that they knew little about.
The result? The predictions of experts were, on average, only a tiny bit better than random guesses — the equivalent of a chimpanzee throwing darts at a board.
“It made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience,” Mr. Tetlock wrote.
Indeed, the only consistent predictor was fame — and it was an inverse relationship. The more famous experts did worse than unknown ones. That had to do with a fault in the media. Talent bookers for television shows and reporters tended to call up experts who provided strong, coherent points of view, who saw things in blacks and whites. People who shouted — like, yes, Jim Cramer!
And a great quote from Samuel Goldwyn (MGM). “If I had said ‘yes’ to all the projects I said ‘no’ to, and ‘No’ to all the projects I said ‘yes’ to, it would have probably come out the same.” via The Drunkard’s Walk.
Filed under: advertising, art, feedback, information, opensource | Tags: cc, change, evolution, future, gpl, information, lawyer, legal, license, mutation, opensource, publicdomain, replication
We have copyright. We have patents. We have trademarks.
We have GPL, Creative Commons, and many others that keep lawyers in business.
We have Public Domain.
Why not choose Public Domain?
We believe in evolution. Evolution is replication and mutation. Public Domain maximizes potential for replication and mutation. Is this the best way for us to move forward? If you love something can you set it free?
More concrete measures from me on this within the next couple months. Make fun of me if I don’t.
Filed under: Uncategorized
You may just qualify to be on the news! Because that is newsworthy.
I got interviewed by the local paper when I found the holy toaster.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Animals dream. Can you see this guy running?
Life is pretty good for him.
update: interesting note from my bro tom, single sleepwalking episode is immediate dismissal from us military.
Marijuana cigarettes were administered in a double-blind fashion and the sequence of 9-THC concentration order was balanced across participants. Although marijuana significantly increased the number of premature responses and the time participants required to complete several tasks, it had no effect on accuracy on measures of cognitive flexibility, mental calculation, and reasoning. Additionally, heart rate and several subjective-effect ratings (e.g., “Good Drug Effect,” “High,” “Mellow”) were significantly increased in a 9-THC concentration-dependent manner. These data demonstrate that acute marijuana smoking produced minimal effects on complex cognitive task performance in experienced marijuana users.
Keywords: MicroCog; Marijuana; Cannabis; THC; Cognition; Human; Performance
When will our laws match our realities? When will our prisons be empty? Or when will scientists stop trying to feed us lies? Maybe we should lock them all up as well? Or wait, how do we get to volunteer for such a study?